Explanatory notes:
06Z MSLP analysis shows a weak Tropical Storm Nesat over the Western Pacific to the west of northern Philippines embedded within the monsoon trough.This tropical weather system and monsoon trough likely strengthens in the next few days hence to moderate to strong strong southwest monsoon conditions over the region before southwest monsoon possibly strengthens further during the weekend/early next week.
Convective inhibition associated with a dry air layer aloft will suppress showers and thunderstorms until early next week when the dry air layer weakens.
Forecast gives more weightage to the ECMWF model than the GFS model.