Explanatory notes:
06Z MSLP analysis shows Typhoon Nesat over the Western Pacific to the northwest of northern Philippines embedded within the monsoon trough.This tropical weather system and monsoon trough likely strengthens in the next few days hence to moderate to strong strong southwest monsoon conditions over the region before southwest monsoon possibly strengthens further during the weekend/early next week.
Forecast gives more weightage to the ECMWF model than the GFS model.